Latinos Unexpected Political Muscle: Predictable Reality

By Bill Colon

The spectacular growth of the Latino population in the last decade, show politicians of both parties they must recalibrate their messages, and act accordingly, if they want to win elections and stay in office. This is true at the national level and it is true in New Jersey.

A recent Huffingtonpost.com article entitled “Hispanic Population, Rising Faster than Anticipated, A “Huge Weapon” for Obama” by Sam Stein, underscores the political perils and rewards of the new landscape provided by the recently-released 2010 Census results. Although I do not agree with all the postulates of the article, the numbers are clear and potent.

According to the census data, 50.5 million Hispanics live in the United States (about 16 percent of the total population), an increase of over 15 million from the 2000 census. This growth has been most pronounced in the South and the Midwest. The Hispanic population more than doubled in size in Alabama, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee, states with a long history of ultra conservative politics. Texas has now over 9 million Latino residents which, presumably, would put that state in play for the Democrats and President Obama, an unthinkable thought a few years back. (There is now a redistricting slugfest in Texas–similar to what we just experienced in New Jersey–where the Republicans are trying to limit the damage of the Latino vote, by proposing isolating that vote in Latino super-majority districts. It did not work here; we doubt it would work there.)

Florida has seen a huge increase of Puerto Rican residents (who tend to vote for the Democrats), and now number close to one million, closely matching Cubans, traditionally more conservative and Republican-leaning.

The growth of the Latino population will indeed have an impact on the national political landscape. Hispanic voters may well be the deciding vote in next year’s elections and for years to come. They will decide who will be our next president, and the next, and the next….

Of course, there are those who wish this predictable reality would not come to pass, and would prefer a ”fortress U.S.A” policy, limiting or prohibiting any new immigrants from Latin America and the Caribbean, in any way, manner, shape or form.

Get this. Latinos are here to stay. Even if both legal and illegal immigration of Hispanics were to come to a complete halt, the Latino population would continue to grow, with births outpacing the rate of net immigration. Basically, short of genocide, this growth is unstoppable.

Which brings us to New Jersey.

Latinos now number almost 1.6 million, 18% of the population. More than ten percent of the population in thirteen of the twenty one counties is Latino. The counties with the smallest share of Latinos are Hunterdon, at 5 percent, and Sussex at 6 percent. Twenty four of forty legislative districts also include over 10 percent Latino population. Eleven of thirteen Congressional districts report over 10 percent Latino. The smallest proportion for a Congressional district is district 5, with 7.58 percent, followed by district 12, with 7.97 percent.

These are big numbers. Especially when you consider that 73 percent of Latinos in New Jersey are bona fide U.S.A. citizens.

As is at the national level, we will also see a strengthening of the Latino political muscle at the state level, as the population matures and claims its rightful place in the state’s civic discourse.

Good news for the Democrats, not so good news for the Republicans and one Mr. Chris Christie.

The governor has work to do, as his anti-Hispanic record, which includes budget cuts to programs serving Hispanics and the working poor, if not corrected, will haunt him as he pursues state and/or national office in 2012, 2013 or 2016.

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